Seeing how late our storks were this year, we tried to figure out the latest date for nesting and starting a family so there'd be a chance for the little storks to hatch, grow up, and be ready for their trip to Africa by the end of summer.
Based on the experience of recent years, the storks of Magyarfenes usually set off for Africa around the 10th of August. The young storks usually leave earlier, while Miska, who guards the nest, usually leaves later. In other words, in order to be able to fly, the young storks need to be fully developed by August 10 and acquire some experience in flying and feeding themselves. In recent years, this learning process has taken 2-4 weeks from the first flight of the first young stork.
If we take August 10 as the reference date for departure and count back two weeks, we get that the first chick should take its first flight by July 27. Based on the experience of recent years, the first flight took place 60-65 days after the first egg hatched. If we count back 60 days from July 27, we get that the first egg should hatch by May 27.
In recent years, incubation has lasted 34-36 days from the laying of the first egg to the hatching of the first egg. If we count back 34 days, we get that the first egg should be in the nest by April 23.
In recent years, it has taken 5-14 days after the pair mated for the first time for the eggs to start appearing. If we assume the shorter period here, a pair of storks would need to occupy their nest by April 18 in order to have a good chance of breeding and raising their young until the autumn migration, preparing them for the long journey.
Of course, this is a very rough calculation, which only takes into account the data of the first, strongest chicks and assumes best-case scenarios. There may be deviations in both favorable and unfavorable directions. It is also possible that they will run out of time even if the family is formed by April 18, but it is also possible that the year will be successful even if the family is formed in early May. The date of the end-of-summer migration can be extended until the very end of August. Around this time, the last groups of storks pass through Transylvania, and it is still possible to join them.
So there is still hope, but in order for the usual schedule to be followed, the nest would have to be populated next week.